Realignment on the Right: Nawrocki’s Presidency is Recalibrating Polish Politics

Nawrocki versus Tusk and his government

From the outset of his presidency, Nawrocki has taken a combative stance vis-à-vis the governing coalition led by Prime Minister Tusk. So far, admittedly, this has produced a mixed bag. Nawrocki seems bent on setting a record when it comes to vetoing government reform and legislative efforts – 23 presidential vetoes during his first six months in office – earning him the nickname “Vetomat”.

However, he has not been very successful in pushing through his own legislative initiatives – out of 17 (another record for his time in office), only one has been passed in parliament – while the government is finding creative workarounds for his vetoes.

Prior to assuming office, Nawrocki indicated that he would resort to using the presidential prerogative of regularly calling a “cabinet council” to check and exert oversight on the government. Nevertheless, his enthusiasm seems to have waned after his first such confrontational council back in August.

With his thuggish style and attempts to project some youthful energy, Nawrocki has been consistently acting as a spanner in the works of government. But he has also slipped up with some of his vetoes. Having blocked a bill to reform the country’s criminal procedure, he earned the ire of football ultras, a milieu he tends to call his own due to his past as a hooligan and a core base of his support.

His recent veto of the 44-billion-euro EU-funded SAFE defence loan demonstrated his Eurosceptic tendencies, which triggered protests as a majority of Poles are in favour of the financing mechanism. The SAFE veto also chimed with Nawrocki’s efforts to assert himself as commander-in-chief of the military, but it is a sensitive issue given Poland’s security situation and geographical proximity to Russia.

Despite his ability to cause problems for Tusk’s governing coalition, the latter has been benefitting politically. Tusk, as a seasoned national and European politician, has proven adept at countering Nawrocki personally and could even be perceived to be thriving in this contentious political climate. His party, the Civic Coalition, has strengthened its position as the country’s dominant political force – albeit at the expense of some of his junior coalition partners – and for now looks set to come out on top at the next election.

‘Now-rocky’ on the international stage

Having worked hard to establish himself domestically, Nawrocki’s presence on the international stage has been less successful – certainly in comparison with the likes of Tusk or the foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, another hawkishly flamboyant personality in Polish politics.

Nawrocki, who has never held political office before and lacks any meaningful international experience beyond that of a museum and memory institute director, has so far failed to impress his European colleagues.

He has appeared out of his league and relatively ineffective – compounded by his somewhat ignorant attitude to diplomatic protocol or European politics – and looks to be increasingly flouted in favour of Tusk or Sikorski by European counterparts in Brussels, Berlin, Paris or even London.

While touting his Euroscepticism and passive-aggressive hostility to Ukraine, Nawrocki has made no secret of his admiration for US President Donald Trump. During last year’s election campaign, he travelled to Washington to meet Trump for enough seconds to produce a photo-op in the Oval Office; he subsequently returned to the White House on his first foreign trip as president, embracing Trump’s mispronunciation of his name as “Now-rocky”.

Nawrocki’s willingness to act in a vassal-like manner towards his American idol was demonstrated with his muted reaction when Trump derided European allies and Polish soldiers who had given their lives in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In his fervour to please Trump – arguably a predilection he shares with many on the Polish right – Nawrocki has also aligned himself with far-right politicians in Europe and beyond, most recently with Hungary’s Viktor Orban.

Although Nawrocki travelled to Budapest to meet with Orban, he stopped short of explicitly endorsing the prime minister in the latter’s re-election campaign. This was arguably seen as an attempt to distance himself from Orban’s pro-Russian stance.

However, after Orban was dumped out of office on Sunday in Hungary’s election, Nawrocki is well-positioned to become ‘Trump’s man in Europe’. Such ambitions could also explain why Nawrocki subsequently travelled to Texas to attend the latest CPAC conference as the only head of state, even though Trump himself did not attend the radical-right gathering.

Nawrocki and the Polish right

Ironically, Nawrocki’s domestic ascendancy and his enhanced ‘Trumpian’ credentials have undermined Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s political standing.

Nawrocki pulled off his electoral victory not only thanks to Kaczynski and PiS’s backing, but also through his ability to attract a large segment of voters who had expressed a preference for the far-right candidates of both Confederation parties.

Nawrocki’s ambitions seem to coincide with an opportunity for generational change on the Polish right as the aging Kaczynski is increasingly expected to retire from politics. However, as the more-than-two-decades-long ‘duopoly’ dominated by Tusk and Kaczynski gradually recedes, the electoral math is becoming more complicated.

The recent split on the far right resulting in two growing ‘Confederations’ will make it difficult for either Tusk or Kaczynski to form a governing coalition no matter which of their parties win – despite PiS’s declining support, it remains the second strongest political force – without the far right as a junior partner.

It is in this light that Kaczynski’s recent move to put forward PiS’s former education minister, Przemyslaw Czarnek – a bullish politician who shares Nawrocki’s more pronounced nationalist and conservative inclinations – as their candidate for prime minister in next year’s parliamentary election should be seen.

Czarnek’s main job in the coming year will be to win back voters from the far right so PiS won’t have to rely on both Confederation parties – and especially the more extreme, pro-Russian and antisemitic Confederation of the Polish Crown – to oust Tusk’s coalition and return to power.

Tusk and his Civic Coalition, on the other hand, might have to open the door to the less-extreme Confederation to form a government if the parties of the current governing coalition fail to secure a majority in next year’s elections.

A lot can happen in a year, but if the far right can indeed act as the kingmaker, it could very well be Nawrocki who will become the new powerbroker in Polish politics.

Tom Junes is a historian and assistant professor at the Institute of Political Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences. He is the author of Student Politics in Communist Poland: Generations of Consent and Dissent.

The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of BIRN.