Ex-Minister: EU Decision Signals Montenegro ‘In Final Stage of Accession Talks’

The European Union’s decision this week to establish a working group to draft an accession treaty with Montenegro is “a very strong political and institutional signal that Montenegro has entered the most advanced phase of negotiations with the European Union,” according to Gordana Djurovic. Montenegro’s former minister of European integration and current president of the Montenegrin Pan-European Union NGO was speaking to BIRN in an interview.

The decision, taken unanimously by all 27 EU member states on April 22, is a strong sign that Brussels sees Montenegro as its most advanced candidate, she said – adding that it also means preparations for the legal framework of future membership are already under way.

“It does not mean automatic or imminent membership, but it confirms that the European Commission sees Montenegro as the most advanced candidate and a country with which the legal framework of future membership should already be prepared,” Djurovic said. “In other words, it is not the end of the process, but it is the beginning of the final stage.”

She also pointed to signals from the European Commission on the financial dimension of the process. “The Commission has already announced that a draft financial package for Montenegro will soon be prepared,” she said. “When political decisions and announcements move towards financial calculations, that is also a good sign, especially ahead of the EU’s next Multiannual Financial Framework starting in 2028.”

Montenegro has so far closed 14 of the 33 negotiating “chapters” in the process of harmonising its legislation with EU law, making it the frontrunner in the accession process among candidate countries. This was confirmed by EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos during a visit to Podgorica last month. 

“Montenegro is in the endgame, but there is still a lot of work ahead, including some of the most difficult reforms,” said Kos, stressing the need for strong and stable institutions to guarantee democracy, the rule of law and human rights.

The EU’s decision this week to launch a working group for drafting the Accession Treaty is seen as confirmation that the country has entered the final stretch of its long path towards membership. But Djurovic cautioned that the process is now entering a more technical and sensitive phase.

“In practical terms, the process becomes much more concrete, technically demanding and politically sensitive,” she said. “We are no longer talking only about opening and closing chapters, but about how future membership will look in legal, financial and institutional terms, from transitional periods and safeguard clauses to budget implications and the full application of the EU acquis.”

Djurovic noted that the draft treaty will include new “safeguard mechanisms” aimed at preventing members reneging on the bloc’s values. 

“In the draft treaty there will also be room for new provisions, usually called ‘safeguard clauses’. These are not a reduction of membership rights, but time-limited measures designed to protect European values on which the Union is based,” she said.

The EU’s problems in recent years with backsliding states like Hungary under “illiberal democrat” Viktor Orban spurred Brussels to introduce the guardrails.

On her visit to Podgorica, Kos confirmed that Montenegro and all future member states will face these “democratic safeguards”. Kos said the “insurance mechanism” would allow the bloc to react if a new member fails to uphold agreed standards. 

Djurovic described this as part of what she called a “new generation of accession treaties”, with the “introduction of rule-of-law regulation into the accession treaty itself”.

A crucial year ahead

Djurovic, who has been a professor of economics at the University of Montenegro in Podgorica since 1990, is a veteran observer of the country’s progress towards EU membership. She served as deputy prime minister for European integration from 2006 to 2009 in the Zejko Sturanovic government, and as minister for European integration from 2009 to 2010 under Milo Djukanovic. Both governments were led by the Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, under whom the integration process started back in the mid-2000s. 

During this period, she also headed Montenegro’s negotiating team for the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU.

Djurovic believes the year 2026 will be decisive for Montenegro.

“It is realistic to say that 2026 is crucial for completing most of the final work,” she stressed. “A more cautious assessment is that the beginning of 2027 is a more likely framework for formally concluding the negotiations, if the current pace continues.”

Djurovic said closing all the remaining negotiating chapters in 2026 is ambitious but not impossible, while key conditions for signing the treaty “remain unchanged”.

“They include a stable track record in the rule of law, especially in high-level corruption and organised crime cases, greater efficiency and independence of the judiciary, and credible protection of fundamental rights and media freedom,” she said. 

“Equally important is the reliability of institutions in implementing obligations, as well as a sufficient level of political stability.”

Djurovic added that cross-party political cooperation will be important. 

“In our case, there is also a need for a well-founded and necessary call from the governing coalition to the opposition to ensure that the parliament functions at full capacity,” she said.

Djurovic said the biggest challenges lie in the combination of reforms, institutions and politics.

“The biggest challenge is the combination of these […] factors, but I would still single out institutional capacity and political cohesion as decisive,” she said. “The EU now expects reforms to survive every political change and deliver continuity.”

A major motivating factor for the EU is concern about Russian influence spreading in Europe, with states in the Balkans seen as vulnerable to interference. Djurovic noted that the EU’s decisions on enlargement are shaped by regional political dynamics.

“Enlargement is seen as a geostrategic investment in stability, security and resilience in the Western Balkans,” she said. “But geopolitical momentum alone is not enough – it opens the door, but only a candidate that meets the criteria can pass through it.”

She added that resolving bilateral issues with Croatia, an EU member state, will also be important in the final phase. Montenegro and Croatia have sparred over various issues in recent years, with Zagreb fearing excessive Serbian influence on Montenegrin politics.

Djurovic acknowledged that foreign influence remains a concern. “External influence remains a serious security and political test, which is why the EU will insist on additional safeguard mechanisms,” she said.

Nevertheless, she expressed optimism: “If Montenegro closes all chapters in 2026 and works in parallel with the European Commission on the Accession Treaty, negotiations could be formally concluded at the beginning of 2027. That would be followed by translation, signing and ratification, opening the door to membership in 2028,” she suggested.

Montenegro voted for independence in a referendum held in May 2006, and the European Union moved the following month to establish relations with the country as a sovereign and independent state.

Montenegro signed its Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU in 2007, while the agreement entered into force in 2010 after ratification by member states. 

The country applied for EU membership in 2009, was granted candidate status in 2010 and formally opened accession negotiations in 2012.