Democracy Digest: Orban Ponders US Exile; Hungary Set to Open Communist-Era Archives

Orban’s wealth and political legacy could also come under increased scrutiny from the incoming Tisza government, which is expected to establish a National Asset Recovery Office to recoup public funds deemed stolen during the 16 years of Fidesz rule. The US could be a safe haven for his family while Orban reassesses his personal and political future; possibly also to wait out the current conditions in the hope that rising public dissatisfaction with Peter Magyar’s government or an economic downturn could prepare the ground for a return to Hungarian politics. His eldest daughter and son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, who accumulated vast wealth during Orban’s rule, already relocated to New York last summer. The move was widely interpreted as part of a potential exit strategy in case of an unfavourable election outcome, which duly came to pass.

Magyar is expected to be sworn in as Hungary’s next head of government on May 9, an event likely to be followed by large-scale festivities around the Hungarian Parliament Building. The date is somewhat unusual, as parliamentary sessions are not typically held on Saturdays, but it may also carry symbolic weight, coinciding with the date of the Allied victory in World War II. Magyar is set to lead a 16-member government, with several key positions filled by former business executives. In a surprise move, he has appointed political scientist Balint Ruff – a prominent political commentator on the independent YouTube channel Partizan and also a former non-official advisor to Tisza – as the minister in charge of running the Prime Minister’s Office. Ruff announced that his first two priorities will be opening up the Communist-era secret police archives – something successive Hungarian governments have avoided doing, unlike in the Czech Republic and Poland – and establishing a National Asset Recovery Office. “My responsibility is to ensure that the justice system holds accountable the group that has stripped the country of at least 20,000 billion forints [around 52 billion euros],” he said in his first interview.

Orban said to have interfered in Slovak election to help Fico; 10th referendum in July

Migration has become a renewed flashpoint in Slovak politics after a claim made by newly elected Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar that Hungary may have influenced Slovakia’s 2023 election by allowing migrants to move towards its border. Magyar accused the government of Viktor Orban of releasing convicted people-smugglers and tolerated migrant movements northwards during the campaign, potentially benefiting his political ally Robert Fico, who ran on a strong anti-migration platform. The claim resonates because migration surged unexpectedly in the weeks before Slovakia’s 2023 vote. Crossings increased sharply along parts of the Slovak-Hungarian border that had not previously seen significant flows, quickly turning migration into a central campaign issue. Shortly after the election, the pressure eased just as abruptly, raising questions among analysts and officials. Fico and his allies, including the chief of intelligence, have dismissed the allegation, saying Magyar failed to provide evidence and describing the claim as an attempt to “throw dirt” into the political debate. While no direct evidence of coordination between Budapest and Bratislava has emerged, accounts from Slovakia’s 2023 caretaker government suggest the situation was closely monitored at the time. Former PM Ludovit Odor said the intelligence services reported indications that migrants – including individuals released from Hungarian prisons – were being moved closer to the border and guided onward. However, these findings were not made public due to a lack of conclusive proof. What makes the issue particularly sensitive right now is the contrast with Fico’s earlier stance on alleged foreign interference. In 2025, he publicly accused the UK of attempting to influence the same 2023 election – launching a diplomatic dispute, demanding explanations and summoning the British ambassador. That case has since been dropped by police without confirmation of any wrongdoing. By comparison, Fico’s response to the Hungarian-related allegations has been notably restrained.

Slovakia is set to hold a referendum – its tenth – on July 4, but without its most politically charged proposal: early parliamentary elections. President Peter Pellegrini decided to exclude that question, arguing it would be unconstitutional, even though the petition behind the vote has gathered more than 384,000 signatures. The initiative was led by the extra-parliamentary party Democrats, headed by former defence minister Jaroslav Nad. Their proposal originally contained three questions: whether to shorten the current parliamentary term, abolish a lifetime pension scheme for former prime ministers (widely associated with four-time PM Robert Fico), and restore key law enforcement institutions dismantled by the current government. Pellegrini ruled that the first question could not be put to a referendum because, under the constitution, the only way to shorten a parliamentary term is through a constitutional majority in parliament itself. The Democrats strongly criticised the decision, calling it politically motivated and announcing plans to challenge it in court. Legal experts are largely divided but tend to support the president’s interpretation. Most agree that referenda cannot be used to issue one-off commands to state institutions. However, there is broader consensus that the remaining two questions – on abolishing the pension scheme and restoring prosecutorial bodies – are constitutionally acceptable, though their practical implementation may be complex. The timing of the referendum, at the start of the summer holidays, has also raised concerns about voter turnout. To date, only one of those referenda has been valid by reaching the necessary quorum.

Poland and France deepen defence ties; president criticised as crypto scandal widens

French President Emmanuel Macron met Polish PM Donald Tusk in Gdansk on Monday, in a visit that marked a step-up in bilateral cooperation across defence, energy and emerging technologies, framed by both leaders as a response to a worsening security environment. Macron said relations were at a “historical level”, while Tusk warned that “if we do not ensure our own safety, no one will do it for us,” underscoring the need for greater European unity. The summit was the first since Poland and France signed a treaty in Nancy on enhanced cooperation on May 9, 2025, committing to closer ties across defence, economic, social and cultural policy. The agreement includes mutual security guarantees, joint efforts to counter hybrid threats, and expanded collaboration in sectors ranging from the defence industry to agriculture, science and the wider economy. In Gdansk, discussions centred on nuclear energy – including potential French involvement in Poland’s planned second nuclear power plant – as well as shared defence planning. Macron confirmed that the leaders had discussed the prospect of joint nuclear exercises as part of extending France’s deterrence umbrella to European allies. In March, France – the EU’s only nuclear-armed state – announced plans to broaden its deterrence framework, inviting eight countries, including Poland, to take part, while signalling an expansion of its own nuclear capabilities. “We began discussing this even before the Nancy treaty and will continue to work on it,” Tusk said, adding the two countries were planning regular joint exercises “on a fairly large scale”. While acknowledging the sensitivity of nuclear deployments – “Having Rafales with atomic bombs above Poland is not my dream” – he stressed that “we live in a world in which we need nuclear deterrence capabilities.” Tusk also pointed to France’s swift response to a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace in September 2025 as evidence of allied reliability, and confirmed that a permanent French military presence in Poland is already effectively in place. He added that Paris may also contribute to securing the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, a key hub for military aid going into Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Zondacrypto, one of Poland’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, is at the centre of a widening scandal that has already left hundreds of users unable to access their funds, with prosecutors estimating losses at no less than 350 million zloty (82 million euros). Investigators are examining whether clients were misled about the safety and availability of their assets, amid mounting complaints over blocked withdrawals and questions about the platform’s access to key reserves. As the investigation gathers pace, the case has spilled into an increasingly bitter political dispute over regulation and responsibility. At the heart of it is President Karol Nawrocki’s decision to twice veto a government-backed law on crypto assets, which would have expanded the powers of Poland’s financial watchdog to intervene in risky or opaque offerings. Nawrocki has defended his vetoes, arguing the proposed framework amounted to overregulation and would have failed to prevent the kind of problems now emerging. “I do not regret this veto for a second,” he said, placing the onus on the government and suggesting that if the authorities had prior warning signs, they should have alerted investors earlier. The government tells a different story. “The president’s determination to protect Zondacrypto was stronger than the interests of Polish citizens,” government spokesperson Adam Szłapka said, arguing that the blocked legislation had been designed precisely to shield investors from such large-scale losses. Tusk went further, linking the platform’s rapid rise to opaque financing and political connections on the right – claims that the opposition rejects.

Protests against Czech govt’s public media plans; Taiwan and China policy in question

Trade unions of Czechia’s public service broadcasters issued an open-ended strike alert this week, with employees of Czech Television (CT) and Czech Radio (CRo) warning against the government’s plans to cancel licence fees and fund them directly from the state budget starting from next year. According to the plans of the Culture Ministry, which is in charge of the controversial reforms, some selected groups of people – including seniors – would stop paying licence fees as early as this year. In a joint statement, both CT and CRo called on the governing coalition to drop the bill, claiming direct state funding posed a threat to editorial independence and lower budgets would undermine their ability to operate properly and fulfill their public-service mission. According to the working proposal, the two broadcasters would lose a combined 1.4 billion crowns (57 million euros) in revenues from 2027. In response to the criticism, Culture Minister Oto Klempir assured that the reforms would do nothing to endanger the autonomy of the broadcasters, claiming that “the independence of public media is an absolutely fundamental priority for our government and for me personally”. Meanwhile, hundreds of students took to the streets across the country on Wednesday in one of the latest public demonstrations of solidarity with CRo and CT. President Petr Pavel diplomatically weighed in on the issue, saying he understood the new government’s efforts to change public media’s funding scheme, but reminded that editorial independence and financial sustainability should be safeguarded at all costs.

The ruling coalition led by PM Andrej Babis has refused to provide a government plane for Senate leader Milos Vystrcil’s planned trip to Taiwan, which will force the speaker of the upper house of parliament – one of the highest constitutional officials in the Czech Republic – to fly commercial for his late May-early June visit. “It’s a stab in the back from the Czech government,” commented Vystrcil, a member of the opposition ODS party and long-time supporter of Taiwan, adding that it is “complete nonsense to pursue a pragmatic policy without being values-based” and criticising the current government for kowtowing to China’s policy of “dictating and controlling everything”. Babis justified the refusal by pointing to the associated costs of the Senate leader’s planned trip and highlighting Czechia’s economic interests in mainland China. Beijing once already threatened Vystrcil with retaliation after his first official trip to Taipei in 2020 that it claimed had violated its one-China policy and undermined Czech-Chinese relations. Some Czech media outlets also speculated that Babis’s refusal to provide a government plane for the Senate leader was due to the fact he was soon planning to visit China himself, an allegation the PM quickly denied.